Real estate experts and investors share some personal views on the trend of real estate investment in the last months of the year before the real estate market slowed down.
The real estate market has passed the halfway point of 2022 and according to many experts, the market has difficulty when liquidity declines in both the primary and secondary markets. remove bottlenecks in product supply, thereby pushing real estate prices to continue to escalate along with a series of moves to correct the real estate market.
However, despite the slowdown in the real estate market, this is still an investment channel chosen by many investors in the context of other investment channels such as securities, gold, etc., which are not very bright. According to data of a market research unit, from January 2020 to June 2022, land and housing have the highest price increases, followed by gold, securities and savings deposits.
Although the gold and stock price indexes increased strongly in January of this year, up 44% and 57% respectively compared to January 2020, but in June 2022, the price of gold and securities decreased, so increased compared to January 2020 to 34% and 21%. That shows, the growth rate of housing prices surpassed gold, securities and deposits.
Therefore, what interests investors now is which segment to invest in in the remaining months of 2022. Giving a point of view, economist, Dr. Can Van Luc shared with the press his principle of investment diversification. In the last months of this year, he will choose to invest in land plots near the big city.
Explaining this choice, Dr. Luc said that for large projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, prices are rising very high, so high that the possibility of increasing the price margin will be narrower than in other segments. Assuming there is a profitable investment, it will also be narrower. Secondly, with the need to buy to stay, it is clear that choosing the center is not necessarily a positive option. During and after the epidemic, many people began to move to the outskirts of the city more with an open environment, large and comfortable campus. Third, land in Vietnam is not much. If the land plot segment is good, well managed, professional investors, and more locations, it's too good.
"We should not use too much financial leverage. Because financial leverage is okay in normal times, but when the market goes down, it's extremely dangerous. Whether it's land or other products, we have to analyzing a number of factors, especially planning, legislation, transport infrastructure, and accompanying services", emphasized Dr. Luc.
Sharing the same opinion on choosing investment products with Dr. Luc, Mr. Do Duy Quy - Sales Director of Hai Phat Group also chooses more cheap real estate investment products in the provinces. He said that he is "younger, more reckless, and takes more risks", so he will choose cheap real estate products in provinces, namely provinces with specific economic conditions and welcome. specific infrastructure.
“I accept the problem that the next 1-2 years will be difficult, may not grow much, but by the 3rd year, my real estate can double, divided, each year still growing 25 - 30%", Mr. Duy said.
"With my choice, investors must clarify whether their goal is liquidity or profit. It must be clearly seen that in the context of this year and next year, the market still has many difficulties, if liquidity is a priority, I will. I think the peri-urban segment in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will be a bright spot, because it serves real needs, new transport infrastructure and new trends of investors," said Mr. Quy.
This person further shared that when the cash flow in projects is tightened, credit is limited, the biggest and most money investors who are present in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will choose an area near them to invest. easy to manage, while creating peace of mind in terms of liquidity. The "markets" in Hanoi and HCMC will open up the periphery, creating a new dimension.
Mr. Ngo Hong Tuan - an experienced investor said that the product of land near the big city and the province's land will be hot. However, with the investment experience that he affirmed "hundred battles, hundred wins", Mr. Tuan shared: "With the product of land near the big city, I will invest around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City with a radius of 40km turning around. First, priority is given to land with a radius of 20-25km".
Explaining this choice, Mr. Tuan said that most of the people who spend money to invest are in the city, and have money conditions. They don't go too far, still in control of their assets. There are rich people, people with money trading with each other. Trade between people who have money, we have money.
With real estate in the province, he also "hunts" land, but does not buy it to wait for the price to increase, but increases its value by investing in homestays or building houses for rent, taking that business money to cover a part. Initial principal and profit. "At the same time, increase the value of the land and when the price is sold for the whole cluster," Mr. Tuan said.
Economist Dinh The Hien also commented that if we observed the market from 2016 to 2019, we had more worries than usual, but we did not expect that in the years 2020-2021, a new price level would be established in Vietnam. some areas by themselves have potential, developed infrastructure.
Along with that development, there was a strong development of the southern market area, forming the movements of Homestay, Farmstay, etc. Currently, speculators in the medium term, investors start to return to the real investment market, which is the market around Ho Chi Minh City with a radius of 30km and located in dynamic areas. The driving force areas include urbanization, industrialization and markets with synchronously connected transport infrastructure, which is the key economic region in the South.
From Long An to Ba Ria Vung Tau - this is the commercial service industry axis centered on Ho Chi Minh City. And surrounding urban areas benefit from Ring 3, such as part of Long An, Ben Luc, Can Giuoc, Chau Duc, etc. This area will have a concentration of 30-40 million people, around Ho Chi Minh City.
“In the future, surfers, mid-term and long-term investors will focus on investing. With less money, focus on Ben Luc with land plots from 12-14 million, more than Nhon Trach or across Long Thanh, .. a little further, Chau Duc, Cam My. As for investors with a lot of capital, they can invest in the area of District 9, Thu Duc. Thu Duc apartment price of 50 million VND is average, 60 million is an acceptable level for investment. Location District 9 is the center of the future city. In my opinion, the cash flow will focus on these areas,” said Mr. Hien, investing in the southern region.
Giving his opinion on the market in the last 6 months of the year, investor Ngo Hong Tuan said that the market "may still go sideways and slightly down, maybe it will turn up in the last months of the year when the cash flow is high".
"Currently, capital flows from banks are "squeezed", unable to surf, while still having to pay interest, investors are still using other financial sources to compensate. Like sick people, they still have antibiotics, only when the disease is too severe, can not bear it anymore, must sell, those who have money - like we will buy back then," Mr. Tuan said.
Dr. Su Ngoc Khuong, Senior Director of Savills Vietnam expects that from now until the end of the year, the real estate market will follow the trend of low supply, high selling prices, so liquidity is limited.
These are 3 problems that the market in the next 5-6 months will still face. Firstly, because the land fund to develop new projects is limited. In addition, projects are congested due to legal issues. The third reason is that investors push the expected return too high.
According to Mr. Khuong, legal problems that have not been resolved for many years are the key factors that make input costs, increase financial costs, and push output prices higher and higher. "It is necessary to have a synchronous solution from capital clearance to legal clearance to remove the current difficult situation for the real estate market," he said.
By Nhip song kinh te